The most important number in tech this year is not revenue or profit. It is a plan to spend several hundred billion dollars on data centers. Here is where the four biggest spenders stand, and how the plans have moved.
- After Q2 earnings, 2026 capex guidance was: Alphabet up to $205 billion, Microsoft $190 billion, Amazon about $200 billion, Meta $138.9 to $145 billion [1].
- In February, guidance was lower: Alphabet $175 to $185 billion and Amazon about $200 billion [2].
- Microsoft’s figure includes about $25 billion attributed to higher component prices from AI chip demand [1].
- Spending guidance is a forecast and has been revised repeatedly.
The July snapshot
| Company | 2026 capex guidance (after Q2 results) |
|---|---|
| Alphabet | Up to $205 billion |
| Microsoft | $190 billion (capex and finance leases) |
| Amazon | About $200 billion; consensus about $207.4 billion |
| Meta | $138.9 to $145 billion |
Source: Digital Today [1].
Compared with February
A February 12 analysis from CMC Markets listed guidance as Alphabet $175 to $185 billion and Amazon about $200 billion, with Microsoft and Meta in the $115 to $135 billion range as it characterized them [2]. Set beside July’s numbers, the direction is clear: Alphabet raised the top of its range by $20 billion, Meta’s guidance rose materially, and Microsoft’s reported figure grew, with $25 billion of it attributed to component price inflation [1][2].
How to read a guidance table
- Ranges move up in steps. Guidance is revised each quarter; the first number is rarely the last.
- Definitions differ. Microsoft’s figure includes finance leases; others report purchases of property and equipment.
- Part of the increase is price. Microsoft attributes about $25 billion to higher component costs, which means more dollars do not always mean more capacity [1].
The February baseline
The July numbers are easier to judge against the earlier reports. CMC Markets noted Amazon’s 2025 capital spending at about $131 billion against an analyst consensus of $146.6 billion before it gave new guidance, and Alphabet’s 2026 range of $175 to $185 billion implied roughly double its prior-year level [2]. In the fourth quarter Google Cloud revenue was $17.66 billion and AWS $35.58 billion, and Alphabet took a $2.1 billion stock-based compensation charge after a Waymo funding round at a $16 billion valuation [2].
Markets reacted badly to the February guidance as well: Alphabet fell about 3 percent and Amazon more than 8 percent after their reports, and Qualcomm and Arm each lost more than 9 percent on the day of Alphabet’s report [2]. CMC also noted that Nvidia traded at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of about 46 [2]. The sequence matters: guidance was raised again in July, so the table above is the second revision upward in the same year, not a one-time plan.
Why it matters
Capex is the lead indicator for AI chip makers, data-center builders, utilities and energy producers. It also represents a claim on future earnings: at some point the revenue from all that capacity has to arrive. Investors have begun to demand evidence, and in some quarters they have punished the spenders. This is analysis, not investment advice.
Questions readers ask
How much will Big Tech spend on AI in 2026?
Guidance after Q2: Alphabet up to $205 billion, Microsoft $190 billion, Amazon about $200 billion, Meta $138.9 to $145 billion [1].
Has capex guidance risen this year?
Yes. In February, Alphabet guided to $175 to $185 billion; by July the top of its range was $205 billion [1][2].
References
- AI investment worries spread after Alphabet capex hike; Amazon, Microsoft, Meta also face scrutiny — Digital Today — https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/86477/ai-investment-worries-spread-after-alphabet-capex-hike-amazon-microsoft-meta-also-face-scrutiny
- Magnificent 7 Earnings, Part 2: Massive AI Capex — CMC Markets — https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en/optox/magnificent-7-earnings-part-2-massive-ai-capex