Enverus Forecast $55 Oil for 2026. Brent Never Traded That Low.

Forecasts are useful for what they assume. Enverus’s 2026 outlook, published in January, is a clean example: carefully reasoned, with the risks listed, and overtaken by an event that was one of the listed risks.

• Enverus’s 2026 Global Energy Outlook, released in January, projected Brent averaging about $55 a barrel, calling 2026 “a year of recalibration” ^[1].
• It expected first-half weakness followed by tightening later in the year, with supply uncertainty around Venezuela, Iran and Russia ^[1].
• In Yahoo Finance data, Brent’s 2026 low was $59.96 on January 7 and its high $118.35 on March 31 ^[2].
• Enverus also forecast Henry Hub at $3.80/MMBtu this winter, $3.60 next summer, and European TTF at $10 to $12 ^[1].

What Enverus expected

The energy-data firm projected Brent crude would average roughly $55 a barrel in 2026, describing a near-term reset in prices rather than long-term scarcity. It anticipated weakness in the first half, then tightening balances later in the year as supply risks tied to Venezuela, Iran and Russia played out ^[1]. For natural gas it forecast Henry Hub averaging $3.80 per million British thermal units this winter and $3.60 next summer, with Europe’s TTF holding between $10 and $12 ^[1].

What actually happened

Brent traded at its 2026 low of $59.96 on January 7, a few dollars above Enverus’s average forecast, and then rose to $72.48 by February 27. After the war with Iran began on February 28 it jumped to $118.35 on March 31 ^[2]. It has stayed volatile since, trading near $102 in early October ^[2]. The $55 average was never in reach.

The lesson in the footnote

The forecast did name Iran as a source of supply risk, which shows that naming a risk is not the same as pricing it. A forecast built on base-case assumptions gives a point estimate; a closed shipping lane is a regime change. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of seaborne petroleum trade, and when its traffic nearly halted, no baseline survived ^[3].

The rest of the outlook

Brent’s average daily close from January 2 to July 23, 2026 was about 87 dollars a barrel, roughly 59 percent above the $55 forecast (my calculation from daily closes) ^[2]. The forecast should not be judged only on that figure, because the outlook covered much more than the oil price. Enverus expected first-half weakness in oil followed by tighter balances in the second half, with supply risks tied to Venezuela, Iran and Russia, and upstream operators keeping to efficiency gains and disciplined capital spending ^[1].

On gas and power, Enverus projected that Permian Basin associated gas output would rise by about 1.1 billion cubic feet a day by the end of 2026 as new pipeline capacity to Gulf Coast markets came online, and that European TTF prices would stay in the $10 to $12 per MMBtu range ^[1]. It also described mounting pressure on power markets as grid operators adjust to shifting demand assumptions, with some system operators adopting AI-driven load forecasting and data centers pursuing behind-the-meter generation because of transmission constraints ^[1]. Sector M&A was expected to stay active, with stress on renewable portfolios, more divestitures and elevated values for gas-fired generation ^[1].

How to use energy forecasts

• Treat the average as a center of gravity, not a prediction.
• Read the list of risks as the real content of the report.
• Check the forecast date against events: January numbers could not know about February 28.

The power-market side of the outlook, rising strain from AI-driven load and data centers building their own generation ^[1], looks better aged, because it describes a structural trend, not a shock. This is analysis, not investment advice.

Questions readers ask

What did Enverus forecast for oil prices in 2026?

Brent averaging about $55 a barrel, with first-half weakness and tightening later in the year ^[1].

How did actual oil prices compare?

Brent’s 2026 low was $59.96 on January 7 and its high $118.35 on March 31 ^[2].