Crude Above $100 Again: Hormuz, Depleting Inventories and a Midterm Promise

In September, oil went back where it spent much of the spring: above $100. The ingredients were familiar, and one of them was political.

• On September 10, 2026 Brent closed at $101.21 and WTI at $96.05, with Brent above $100 for the first time since July after US-Iran military escalations ^[1].
• The Strait of Hormuz, which handles about a fifth of global seaborne petroleum trade, remains severely constrained; the EIA warns restrictions could leave millions of barrels per day shut in through year-end ^[1].
• President Trump acknowledged that oil prices are unlikely to fall before the midterm elections, predicting a decline afterward ^[1].
• Goldman Sachs earlier warned that Brent could stay above $100 through 2026 if the closure lasted another month ^[2].

The September move

On September 10, Brent crude settled at $101.21 a barrel, its first close above $100 since July, and WTI finished at $96.05. A fresh round of U.S.-Iran escalation, with U.S. strikes on Iranian vessels in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman followed by Iranian missile attacks on American positions, drove the move ^[1]. The Indian crude basket hit $109, a four-month high ^[1].

The shipping lane

The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global seaborne petroleum trade and remains severely constrained: shipping operators are making long diversions and insurers classify the corridor as high risk. The U.S. Energy Information Administration warns that tanker-transit restrictions could leave millions of barrels per day shut in through year-end ^[1]. Analysts also point to depleting inventories as a factor ^[1].

The political note

The most unusual sentence in the coverage is from President Trump, who acknowledged that oil prices are unlikely to decline before the midterm elections and predicted they would fall afterward ^[1]. The conflict was in its seventh month at that point ^[1]. Gasoline has risen 27.4 percent from a year earlier, so the political stakes of the price are obvious ^[3].

What forecasters said

Earlier in the year Goldman Sachs warned that Brent would stay above $100 through 2026 if the Hormuz closure lasted another month, and projected Q3 and Q4 averages of $120 and $115 ^[2]. Actual prices have been below those averages for much of the summer, which shows both how volatile the market is and how much depends on the shipping lane.

Goldman’s two scenarios, and what happened

Goldman Sachs analyst Daan Struyven wrote in April that the situation was fluid and that risks to the bank’s forecast were skewed to the upside ^[2]. The bank laid out two paths: if Hormuz stayed closed, Brent could average $120 in the third quarter and $115 in the fourth, staying above $100 through 2026; if the situation improved, it would average $82 in the third quarter and $80 in the fourth ^[2]. At the time Brent was trading at $96.51, up about 10 percent over the previous month ^[2].

Actual prices landed between the two. Brent’s average close from July 1 to September 10 was about 88 dollars a barrel, well under the closed-strait path and above the improvement path (my calculation from daily closes) ^[1]. That fits the description of Hormuz as severely constrained but not completely shut, and it is a reminder that scenario analysis gives ranges, not predictions. The September 10 close of $101.21 was the first above $100 since July, when Brent touched $100.69 ^[1].

What to watch

• Hormuz transit counts and insurer behavior.
• Inventory levels and any further emergency stock releases.
• Central-bank reaction: the Fed hiked on September 16 ^[4].

This is analysis, not investment advice.

Questions readers ask

What was the price of Brent on September 10, 2026?

It settled at $101.21, its first close above $100 since July, per Business Today ^[1].

Why were oil prices rising in September 2026?

Renewed U.S.-Iran military clashes, a severely constrained Strait of Hormuz and depleting inventories ^[1].