Politics, War and Voter Attitudes with Percentages

The United States is engaged in multiple conflicts overseas, and public opinion about democracy, war and political violence is shifting. Recent surveys and academic research reveal how these issues influence voter behavior and confidence in the electoral system.

• Each new conflict reduces turnout by <1% but >300 casualties can raise turnout by ~2%.
• 72% of Americans are concerned about election fraud; confidence in elections is split (47% confident, 36% not).
• 81% view democracy as threatened; 51% want officials to fight for values vs. 39% who favor compromise.
• Black respondents are 9.5 points more likely than whites to oppose war; gender gap is modest (1.5 points).
• Expectation of civil war fell from 13.7% (2022) to 5.7% (2023), but still persists among extreme right‑wing adherents (55.7% expect it).
• Economic concerns now dominate (20% top issue) vs. war concerns (8%).
• Nearly 80% see the U.S. in political crisis; approval of foreign conflicts is low (31–56%).
• While most reject political violence, Democrats estimate 47% of Republicans accept it as justified, with only 13% of Republicans agreeing.

War, Casualties and Voter Turnout

Each new conflict demobilizes the electorate by slightly less than 1 percent.
[1]

Fatalities increase voter turnout, but only when conflicts result in more than 300 deaths.
[1]

Moving from an election cycle with zero casualties to one where 500 casualties occurred would increase turnout by nearly 2 percent.
[1]

People with little interest in politics vote more during violent wars, a 2016 study in the American Journal of Political Science finds.
[1]

Overall, people vote less if there have been few recent war deaths.
[1]

Attitudes Toward Election Integrity

Most Americans—about 72 percent in June 2024—are very or somewhat concerned about false or misleading election claims.
[2]

Only about 7 percent report feeling not at all concerned.
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These attitudes show remarkable stability over time.
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A plurality of participants (47 percent) reported feeling completely or fairly confident that American elections are free, fair and secure.
[2]

Only 36 percent said they felt slightly or not at all confident.
[2]

Since June 2023, the percentage of respondents who said they would be less likely to support a candidate who denies election results has remained consistent.
[2]

The percentage of those who said they would be more likely to support such a candidate declined slightly since December 2023, from 19 percent to 13 percent.
[2]

Democracy Under Threat

A new poll from Georgetown University shows 81 percent of voters believe democracy in America is currently being threatened, with 72 percent agreeing strongly.
[3]

Majorities are not interested in compromise on voting rights. Fifty‑one percent want elected officials to fight for their values, while 39 percent want leaders to find the best solution possible.
[3]

Among Republicans, 48 percent want leaders to fight and 41 percent prefer compromise.
[3]

Independents are more divided: 45 percent want leaders to fight and 48 percent prefer compromise.
[3]

Race, Gender and War Opposition

Black respondents are 9.5 percentage points more likely than white respondents to oppose U.S. involvement in war.
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Women are only 1.5 percentage points more likely than men to oppose U.S. involvement in Vietnam.
[4]

Civil‑War Expectations

In mid•2, Wave 1 of a longitudinal survey on political violence found that 13.7 percent of adults strongly or very strongly agreed that “in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States.”
[5]

Wave 2 in 2023 showed the figure fell to 5.7 percent, but among those who agreed that civil war was coming, 38.4 percent also strongly agreed that it was needed.
[5]

Among respondents who strongly or very strongly agreed that civil war was needed, 36.0 percent (95 percent CI 29.7 percent, 42.3 percent) also strongly or very strongly agreed that it was needed.
[5]

More than half of respondents who strongly approved of extreme right‑wing political organizations and social movements expected civil war (55.7 percent) and thought it was needed (50.8 percent).
[5]

Current Public Concerns (April 2026)

Sixty‑1 percent say the national economy is off track, up from 43 percent in January 2025.
[6]

Economic concerns are the top issue for 20 percent of Americans, up from 16 percent in March.
[6]

Only 8 percent cite war and foreign conflicts as the most important problem, down from 14 percent in March.
[6]

Public opinion on Iran is split: 48 percent favor a peace deal even if it results in a worse agreement, while 46 percent would push for a better deal even if it means resuming military action.
[6]

Sixteen percent are undecided.
[6]

Sixty‑1 percent say using military force against Iran was a mistake.
[6]

Sixty‑5 percent are not confident that an agreement to end the war will prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
[6]

Political Crisis and Approval of Conflict

Nearly 8 in 10 voters say the United States is in a political crisis, according to a September 2025 Quinnipiac poll.
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Gun‑violence: 38 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove.
[7]

Russia‑Ukraine war: 33 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove.
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Israel‑Hamas conflict: 31 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove.
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Death‑penalty: 55 percent prefer life in prison with no chance of parole, while 35 percent prefer the death penalty.
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Seventy‑1 percent think politically motivated violence in the United States today is a very serious problem, 22 percent a somewhat serious problem, 3 percent a not so serious problem, and 1 percent not a problem at all.
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Attitudes Toward Political Violence

Democrats (96 percent) and Republicans (97 percent) overwhelmingly rejected the idea that physically attacking political opponents would be justified if their party’s candidate claimed the election was stolen.
[8]

Each side believed about half of the opposing party would support such attacks.
[8]

After the assassination attempt on President Trump, Democrats estimated that 47 percent of Republicans agree that “violence against Democrats is now justified.” Independents believe 38 percent of Republicans agree. Only 13 percent of Republicans agreed with the statement.
[8]

A January 2026 poll found that 67 percent of Americans say violence is becoming more of a problem in American politics.
[8]

Key Takeaways

• War involvement modestly depresses voter turnout, but high casualty counts can boost it by roughly 2 percent.
  [1]
• Public concern about election fraud remains high (72 percent) while confidence in election integrity is divided (47 percent confident, 36 percent not).
  [2]
• A broad majority (81 percent) see democracy as threatened, and most favor confrontational politics over compromise.
  [3]
• Race gaps in war opposition are larger (Black vs. white) than gender gaps (women vs. men).
  [4]
• Expectations of civil war have fallen but still persist, especially among extreme right‑wing adherents (55.7 percent).
  [5]
• Economic concerns now outweigh war concerns in the public agenda (20 percent vs. 8 percent).
  [6]
• Nearly 80 percent view the U.S. as politically crisis‑ridden; approval of foreign conflicts is low (33‑56 percent).
  [7]
• While most reject political violence, a sizable minority (Democrats estimate 47 percent of Republicans) believe it may be justified, and a small share of Republicans (13 percent) agree.
  [8]

FAQs

What is the relationship between war casualties and voter turnout?

Research shows each new conflict reduces turnout by slightly less than 1 percent. When casualties exceed 300, voter turnout rises, and moving from zero to 500 casualties can increase turnout by nearly 2 percent.
[1]

How confident are Americans about election integrity?

Forty—7 percent say they are completely or fairly confident that U.S. elections are free, fair and secure. Thirty–6 percent express little or no confidence.
[2]

What do polls say about democracy being threatened?

Eighty‘1 percent of voters believe democracy in America is currently threatened, with 72 percent strongly agreeing. The majority favor leaders who fight for values over those who seek compromise.
[3]

Are there notable differences in war opposition by race or gender?

Yes. Black respondents are 9.5 percentage points more likely than white respondents to oppose war. Women are only 1.5 percentage points more likely than men to oppose U.S. involvement in Vietnam.
[4]

How have expectations of civil war changed over the past two years?

In mid•2, 13.7 percent of adults strongly or very strongly agreed that civil war was coming. By 2023, that figure fell to 5.7 percent, though among those who still expect civil war, 38.4 percent also think it is needed.
[5]

What issue dominates public concern in 2026?

Economic concerns top the agenda for 20 percent of Americans, while only 8 percent cite war and foreign conflicts as the most important problem.
[6]

How does the public view political violence?

Both Democrats (96 percent) and Republicans (97 percent) reject the justification of attacks on political opponents. However, Democrats estimate that 47 percent of Republicans believe violence against Democrats is justified, while only 13 percent of Republicans agree.
[8]