Politics, War and Voter Attitudes with Percentages

The United States is engaged in multiple conflicts overseas, and public opinion about democracy, war and political violence is shifting. Recent surveys and academic research reveal how these issues influence voter behavior and confidence in the electoral system.

• 81% of Americans believe democracy is threatened, with 72% strongly agreeing [2]
• 75% say democracy is under attack, including majorities of Democrats (80%), Republicans (72%) and independents (64%) [7]
• Democrats estimate 47% of Republicans justify political violence; 13% of Republicans agree [1]
• Each new conflict reduces turnout by <1%; casualties >300 increase turnout nearly 2% [1]
• War fatalities mobilize politically disengaged voters in U.S. and U.K. [3]
• 67% see partisan news coverage as a serious threat to democracy [7]
• Civil war expectations remained uncommon and stable from 2023 to mid-2024 [4]

Democracy Under Threat

An overwhelming 81% of respondents believe democracy in America is currently being threatened, with 72% agreeing strongly with that statement [2]. A post-midterm battleground poll found 75% of Americans say democracy is under attack, while 24% disagree [7]. This concern crosses party lines: 80% of Democrats, 72% of Republicans and 64% of independents share the view [7].

Political Violence Attitudes

Most Americans reject political violence, but a sizable minority see justification. Democrats estimate 47% of Republicans believe political violence may be justified, while 13% of Republicans themselves agree [1]. Researchers note that among respondents who thought they would likely participate as combatants in a civil war, large percentages said they would abandon that position if urged by family, friends, respected leaders or the media [4]. Expectations of and support for civil war remained uncommon in mid-2024 and little changed from 2023 [4].

War Casualties and Voter Turnout

Each new conflict reduces turnout by slightly less than 1% [1]. However, when casualties exceed 300, voter turnout rises. Moving from zero to 500 casualties can increase turnout by nearly 2% [1]. Large numbers of war fatalities increase turnout by reaching the least politically engaged members of society — those who report little interest in politics [3]. In both the U.S. and U.K., casualties mobilize people who otherwise would likely not vote [3]. Citizens who follow politics closely do not change their behavior [3].

Media Bias as a Threat

Two-thirds of voters (67%) believe news coverage that favors one political party is a serious threat to democracy [7]. This view is held by 76% of Republicans, 63% of independents and 59% of Democrats [7]. Biased coverage is seen as an extremely or very serious threat by majorities of daily viewers of CNN (64%), Fox News (79%) and MSNBC (67%) [7].

Election Context

Corruption ranked as the top voter issue in the final CNBC poll before the election, which carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points [5]. In the 2026 midterms, Democrats won majorities in both the House and Senate based on a representative survey of almost 80,000 verified voters conducted by SSRS [6].