Republicans Up, Democrats Down: How Election Confidence Crossed Over

A familiar pattern in election research is that confidence follows power: supporters of the party in office trust the system more. Pew’s 2026 reading shows something less tidy. The two partisan lines have nearly met.

• In Pew’s July 6-12, 2026 survey, Republicans’ confidence that the midterms will be fair and accurate was 55 percent, up from 47 percent in 2024 ^[1].
• Democrats’ confidence was 58 percent, down from 77 percent in 2024 ^[1].
• Sixty-six percent of Americans were confident that all citizens who want to vote can do so, but the partisan gap was wide: 83 percent of Republicans versus 53 percent of Democrats ^[1].
• Adults 65 and older (66 percent) and college graduates (61 percent) showed higher confidence ^[1].

The crossover

Pew surveyed 3,554 U.S. adults on its American Trends Panel from July 6 to 12, 2026. Overall, 55 percent were confident the midterms would be conducted fairly and accurately. Among Republicans, 55 percent said so, up from 47 percent in 2024. Among Democrats, 58 percent, down sharply from 77 percent two years earlier ^[1]. A 30-point gap in 2024 had shrunk to three points.

The standard explanation, and its limits

The conventional explanation is that voters happy with the government trust the machinery that produced it more. The 2026 numbers are consistent with that: Republicans’ confidence rose while Democrats’ fell ^[1]. What the poll cannot tell us is why individuals changed their minds; that requires follow-up questions about specific concerns.

Access is a different question

Pew also asked whether people were confident that all citizens who want to vote can do so. Sixty-six percent said yes overall, but the partisan picture reverses: 83 percent of Republicans were confident, compared with 53 percent of Democrats ^[1]. Confidence in how votes are counted and confidence in who can cast one are not the same belief, and they do not move together.

Four waves, one reversal

Pew’s trend lines make the crossover vivid. Republicans’ confidence that the elections would be fair and accurate was 75 percent in April 2020, 46 percent in August 2022, 47 percent in July 2024 and 55 percent in July 2026. Democrats’ was 46 percent in April 2020, 81 percent in August 2022, 77 percent in July 2024 and 58 percent in July 2026 ^[1]. In each wave, supporters of the party holding the White House were the more confident, and the 2026 gap of three points is the smallest of the four waves, against 29, 35 and 30 points earlier ^[1] (my arithmetic from Pew’s figures).

Access is a separate question with a different partisan picture. Pew asked about confidence that all citizens who want to vote in the November elections will be able to do so; 83 percent of Republicans and 53 percent of Democrats were confident, a 30-point gap in the opposite direction ^[1]. The fairness questions come from a July 2026 survey of 3,554 adults, interviewed July 6 to 12, and the voting-goal questions from an April 2026 survey of 5,103 adults, interviewed April 20 to 26 ^[1]. Two questions about the same elections can pull in different directions, which is why a single “confidence in elections” number hides so much.

Age and education

Adults 65 and older, at 66 percent, and college graduates, at 61 percent, expressed higher confidence than the national average ^[1].

A reasonable summary is that in 2026 the partisan divide has moved: overall confidence has converged, while confidence in access to voting is where the two sides now differ most.

Questions readers ask

How did partisan confidence in elections change between 2024 and 2026?

Republicans rose from 47 percent to 55 percent and Democrats fell from 77 percent to 58 percent, per Pew ^[1].

Do Americans believe everyone who wants to vote can?

Pew found 66 percent confident overall, with 83 percent of Republicans and 53 percent of Democrats ^[1].