Five Numbers to Carry Into the 2026 Midterms

Before the 2026 midterms turn into a blur of charts, here are five numbers that you can actually trust, each with its source, date and limits. If a claim you meet this autumn cannot be tied to one of these, ask where it came from.

• 55 percent of adults are confident the midterms will be fair and accurate, per Pew (July 2026) ^[1].
• 63 percent are confident ballots will be counted accurately, per Marist (March 2026) ^[2].
• 66 percent are confident everyone who wants to vote can, but Republicans (83 percent) and Democrats (53 percent) differ widely ^[1].
• 84 percent call political violence a problem in a March 2026 online survey, and 34 percent approved of the Iran military action in Gallup’s June poll ^[3][4].

55: confidence in a fair and accurate election

Pew’s July 6-12, 2026 survey of 3,554 adults found 55 percent confident the midterms will be conducted fairly and accurately, compared with 61 percent in 2024 and 64 percent in 2022 ^[1]. Republicans were at 55 percent and Democrats at 58 ^[1].

63: confidence in the count

Marist’s March 2-4, 2026 poll of 1,591 adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 points, found 63 percent confident that ballots will be counted accurately ^[2]. The wording is narrower than Pew’s, which is why the numbers differ.

66: confidence that everyone who wants to vote can

Pew also asked about access: 66 percent were confident, but 83 percent of Republicans against 53 percent of Democrats ^[1]. This is where the partisan divide is now widest.

84: political violence is a problem

The Global Project Against Hate and Extremism’s March 2026 survey, an online poll of 1,552 adults, found 84 percent say political violence is a problem, with 57 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of Republicans calling it a very big one ^[3]. Treat it as indicative because the sample is non-probability ^[3].

34: approval of the Iran military action

Gallup’s June 1-15, 2026 poll found 34 percent approved of the military action in Iran, lower than for the Gulf War or Afghanistan ^[4].

What else those polls say

Each of the five numbers sits inside a poll with other findings worth carrying. Marist found that 59 percent prioritize ensuring everyone eligible can vote against 41 percent who prioritize preventing ineligible voting, with 70 percent of Republicans choosing prevention and 86 percent of Democrats choosing access; it also found 54 percent opposed to National Guard presence at polling places and 46 percent in favor ^[2]. The Global Project Against Hate and Extremism survey found 53 percent afraid of ICE or the National Guard being deployed to monitor polling stations, and that 15 percent would leave without voting if they witnessed harassment ^[3].

The war number comes from a different kind of poll. Gallup’s June survey found 34 percent approving of the military action, below the Gulf War and Afghanistan, with support strongest among older Americans and men, while a March Indeed poll had 40 percent among registered voters ^[4]. Putting them side by side shows the point of the exercise: different pollsters, dates and questions, one set of numbers about trust. None of them forecasts turnout or results, which is the reason to carry them as context and not as predictions.

How to use them

None of these numbers predicts an outcome. They describe the mood in which voters will decide. Compare each poll only with itself over time, check the date, and remember that a margin of error covers sampling noise, not wording or timing.

Questions readers ask

What are the key election-related poll numbers for 2026?

Pew: 55 percent confident in a fair and accurate midterm; Marist: 63 percent confident in an accurate count; Pew: 66 percent confident everyone who wants to vote can ^[1][2].